SMART Trader

2012-02-06T21:16:00.004+05:30

I no longer trade these methods.
I have stopped swing trading and position trading.
Day trading only Nifty futures.
Just cant sleep at night with open positions.

You can view my day trades at
http://niftynirvana.blogspot.in/
BYE

Break !

2008-10-05T20:10:00.001+05:30

Signal !

2008-09-22T19:21:00.002+05:30

I will not be able to post regularly for a few more days.I have made arrangements to update the breakout list and market statistics . You can download these in excel format. Link on side bar.

Signal !

2008-09-11T20:56:00.004+05:30

Market statistics and breakout list updated.Download link on side bar

Global Markets Relative to 52 Week Highs

2008-09-10T00:11:00.004+05:30

Data from Bespoke Investment Group Click on the chart to enlarge

Breakout 08/09/2008

2008-09-08T22:11:00.003+05:30

Breakout WALCHANNAG
Breakout list and market statistics updated.Download link on sidebar.

Market Signal !

2008-09-07T16:05:00.001+05:30

Breakout 08/09/2008

2008-09-07T14:28:00.002+05:30

Breakout BPCL
Download breakout list and market statistics from the sidebar
Respect your stops.

Quote of the day.

2008-09-06T21:00:00.002+05:30

"In my view, far too many investors delay their success by being stuck hoping that the key to their financial success rests in the work, opinions, and skills of others.

If I've learned anything about life and the markets is that we all control our own financial destiny and the sooner we step up and take full responsibility for it, the quicker we'll achieve every goal we set."

Charles E. Kirk

India joins Nuke Club !

2008-09-06T20:45:00.002+05:30

Breakout 04/09/2008

2008-09-04T20:53:00.002+05:30

Breakout DISHTV
Breakout list and market statistics updated. Download link on sidebar
Respect your stops.Follow through action after breakout is missing.

Breakouts 02/09/2008

2008-09-03T20:33:00.007+05:30

Breakouts ICICIBANK , IOC and RELCAPITAL.
Respect your stops.

Breakouts 29/08/2008

2008-08-31T18:25:00.002+05:30

Breakouts TRIVENI and PUNJLLOYD
Caution advised . Respect your stops. Broad market condition not favorable
Download breakout list and Market data from side bar link

Reading : Tiger and the Dragon !

2008-08-30T18:11:00.001+05:30

China and India: Two Paths to Economic Power
by W. Michael Cox and Richard Alm

For decades, China and India plodded along under ideologies that favored the visible hand of government over the invisible hand of markets. Their economic systems stifled growth and left both countries poor. In 1980, real per capita income stood at $556 in China and $917 in India.

To jump-start their economies, China and India shifted strategies, letting private enterprise flourish and opening markets to trade and investment. The new policies have led to rapid economic development. China’s real per capita income has grown an average of 8.4 percent a year since 1995, climbing to $4,766. India’s 5 percent average annual growth has raised per capita income to $2,534.[1]

Both China and India have unleashed pent-up economic energy, but they’re not traveling the same development path. China has followed the traditional route, becoming a center for low-wage manufacturing and exporting clothing, toys, electronics and other goods. India has emphasized services, using its large English-speaking labor force for call centers, data-processing operations and the like.

Growth rates give China’s goods-dominated strategy the better track record so far. But India’s approach may pay off better longer term. A look at per capita incomes around the world shows that the wealth of nations eventually depends more on services than industry.

Thank You So Much for the Ratings.!

2008-08-29T20:52:00.001+05:30

The Teeter-Totter !

2008-08-29T20:12:00.002+05:30

Market monitor and breakout list updated.Download link on side bar

Signal !

2008-08-28T18:49:00.003+05:30

Breakout list and market monitor updated.Link on sidebar.Stay out.

The Stages of a Bear Market

2008-08-27T23:50:00.002+05:30

The Stages of a Bear Market--Denial, Concern, Capitulation
www.comstockfunds.com

Generally bear markets go through three psychological phases - denial, concern and capitulation. Most often, but not always, the market rallies between each phase. The denial phase is the initial significant down leg from the bull market high. During this phase the majority of investors are still in a bullish frame of mind, after seeing continuing profits in their account and having seen the market bounce back from prior corrections. They look upon the decline as merely another buying opportunity and think that stocks are now cheap. In addition the fundamentals during this phase are still perceived as positive and any negative news is downplayed. Following this phase the market usually rallies, but on weak breadth and lower volume.

Eventually the market tops out well below its previous high and starts a new down leg carrying it to lower lows. During this phase the fundamental news significantly worsens and investors realize that that a bear market is in force. This is the phase of concern. During this phase many investors sell, but others hang in, feeling that the bad news is discounted and that a bottom is near. At this point the market may rally again as many observers feel that the decline has ended and that a new bull market has begun. This rally, also characterized by weak breadth and low volume, subsequently fails and heads down. At this point the majority becomes exceedingly bearish and throws in the towel, fearful of further declines and the potential disappearance of their assets. This is the capitulation phase, when stocks are sold on fear and emotion rather than on rational analysis. It is at that point that the market is finally ready to make an important bottom.
Where are we now ?

Breakout 25/08/2008

2008-08-25T19:14:00.002+05:30

Breakout 25/08/2008 EDUCOMP.
Breakout list and market statistics updated.Link on side bar.
Caution advised. Respect your stops.

Thank You Readers and Fellow Bloggers.

2008-08-25T08:37:00.002+05:30

Early morning today ,I welcomed my 10000 th guest.Thanks to my guests for their visits and thanks to my fellow bloggers for sending their readers to me.

Please keep coming and drop me a note every now and then.I am always happy to hear your feedback.

Looking Back.

2008-08-24T19:55:00.009+05:30

Market conditions are not favorable for breakout trades.There is no follow through for the breakouts and new leadership is not emerging.Lack of institutional support is a major concern.Core project is one among the very few recent breakouts that worked.view the above chart.Core gave me a lot of money last year.View the chart below.Blue arrows are SMART breakouts. Click on the charts to enlarge

Breakout 22/08/2008

2008-08-24T19:49:00.002+05:30

Breakout 22/08/2008 ASTRAMICRO
Market condition not favorable for trading breakouts.Respect your stops
Download market statistics and breakout list in excel format
Link on side bar.Trading method on sidebar

Signal !

2008-08-21T21:49:00.003+05:30

Breakout list and market data updated.Download link on side bar
Market condition not favourable . Stay out.

Breakouts 20/08/2008

2008-08-20T18:57:00.006+05:30

Breakouts HOCL and RCF. Click on the chart to enlarge
You can download breakout list and market data in excel format.
Link on side bar.Short list &trade.Trading method on side bar.
FII net sales at 1135 crores today.Respect your stops.

Sale ! , Sale !

2008-08-20T14:19:00.003+05:30

Traditionally, during the months of July and August many retailers announce discount sales.Have you ever thought Why ?

For most consumer product items other than essential commodities July and August are the slowest months of off take.Retailers announce discount sales to boost sales and to clear old stocks.They are pulling out capital from the dead and slow moving products to invest in new merchandise for the coming festive and wedding season.

If you observe, you can see a fundamental shift in retailing,especially in urban markets.Discount sales have become a regular feature rather than once a year.Slower moving items are sold at a discount on an on going basis to clear the dud and free the capital.

Dead stock happens not only in retailing but in trading also.It is prudent to shift your capital from such positions to new opportunities as soon as possible.Now a days news and information is available to the market participants without any delay and the price adjustment happens almost instantly.

So,Our position should move favorably within a reasonable time.Otherwise it is better to move out and look for another opportunity.That is why we are using a 5 day time stop for SMART.If we are not in profit zone within five trading days , just get out

Signal !

2008-08-18T22:16:00.002+05:30

Breakout list and market internals updated.You can download in excel format.Link on the side bar.Market monitor is in red zone now. Institutions are not supporting the market.Better to stay out till a clear trend emerges.

Mind Your Words !

2008-08-17T13:25:00.005+05:30

Words have incredible powers.They create impressions and mental images. Simple normal words like "Loss" can create psychological problems.They influence how we think and these thoughts determine our actions.

Now .Relax and close your eyes.Just think about"Loss".What do you see ?

A theft ? an accident ? a flood ? something burning down? or a pauper begging on the street?. I am sure You will see many unpleasant images.These feelings can kill your enthusiasm,impact your self esteem,lower your expectations and hold you back.No wonder traders find it hard to take losses.

Let us call "loss" something else, say "Expense".Now it feels better. Something business like.Trading is a business where our "wins" are our income and our losses are our expenses.

Treat trading losses just like any other expenses like brokerage,telephone bill,data feed charges and internet charges. As in any other business try to increase income and reduce expenses to become more profitable.Once we realize this we are much likely to be better, profitable traders.

So, mind your words.

Best Books.

2008-08-16T17:17:00.003+05:30

24 Essential lessons for investment success: William o Neil

Super performance stocks : Richard Love

Your next great stock:Jack Hough

The Hedge Fund Edge : Mark Boucher

Trading in the zone : Mark Douglas

Trading Breakouts .

2008-08-15T14:45:00.005+05:30

SMART trades are basically breakout trades.Breakout trading is relatively easy and suitable for beginners because one is trading in the direction of the trend. The primary advantage of buying a breakout is that it forces you to go with the trend.

This does not mean trading breakout is a cake walk.Breakouts can fail and prices can fall back, trapping the trader.Post breakout, buyers may question the validity of the new price and may decide to sell.This creates a phenomena called "Traders Remorse" where prices return to the old level.

Only solution to this problem is to select the right stock.We must select and trade only those stocks which have a very high probability of continuing the new up move.Stock selection is the key in breakout trading.

Here is some broad guidelines for trading breakouts.

1.Pay attention to the overall market.Most breakouts fail in bear markets and in a consolidation phase.Many early bull market breakouts will not follow through

2.Closely monitor the sector and industry relative strength in different time frames.Concentrate on the sectors and industries that goes up in relative ranking and not on the top one

3.Bet on long term momentum.stocks with 6 to 12 months price momentum are likely to perform well.concentrate on stocks with high relative strength.

3.Watch for breakouts after some basing or consolidation. consolidation for about a month is ideal.

4.Look for the catalyst.If you can identify a clear catalyst well and good.

5.If the breakout is not accompanied by an increase in volume, it is likely to be a false breakout and prices will return to their previous levels quickly.

6.Prefer the stocks quoting within 20 % of its 52 week high.

Remember there are no certainties in Market.A breakout may or may not work.If it is not working look for the next one.

Happy Independence Day

2008-08-15T10:38:00.002+05:30

H_NDUS, MUSL_MS, CHR_STIANS, S_KHS, BUDH_STS, and JA_NS,
When you forget the "I" of Indian,You will lose your identity.

Breakouts 13/08/2008

2008-08-13T22:12:00.002+05:30

Breakouts DISHTV and COREPROTEC
You can download breakout list and market statistics.Link on side bar.
Breakouts are getting whipsawed.Aggressive trading not recommended

Racing and Trading

2008-08-12T22:39:00.003+05:30

Here is an excellent article by Scott Rothbort at thestreet.com

Five Investing Tips I Learned at the Track
Scott Rothbort

I have been very successful at winning money at the races, even though I'm not a big bettor. For me, going to the races is a form of entertainment, not income generation. Nevertheless, there are many lessons I've learned at the race track that are also applicable to trading and investing. Here are five.

1. Don't Bet Every Race

2. Do Your Research

3. Eliminate the Losers

4. Not All Favorites Are Good Favorites

5. Be Aware of Derivatives

Read More

Breakouts 12/08/2008

2008-08-12T22:05:00.004+05:30

MUNDRAPORT and EASTSILK

Download breakout list from sidebar.Aggressive trading not recommended.
Post breakout follow through action is missing.

Breakouts 11/08/2008

2008-08-11T22:00:00.003+05:30

Breakouts GVKPIL INDIABULLS
Download breakout list from sidebar
Trading method link on sidebar

Where to Invest ?

2008-08-10T16:04:00.002+05:30

Cartoon courtesy :Midday
Cartoon by Satish Acharya Link to his blog.

Breakouts 08/08/2008

2008-08-10T15:02:00.007+05:30

Click on the image to enlarge

Breakouts AFTEK DEEPAKFERT ASIANELEC
You can download the breakout list .Link on side bar.

My Own Domain

2008-08-10T13:59:00.003+05:30

Dear Friends, Now I have my own Domain.

http://www.smarttradense.com

After blogging for a while at a Blogspot.com address, I have decided it's time to upgrade to a custom domain.It feels really great to have my own domain and custom mail ID.Feels like a true professional now.

Own Domain Name Attached to Blogger gives me many additional options and features. I will be making use of some of these features soon.For the time being the blog will continue at blogspot itself as it is free, but I will set up my own web site in future.

I would like to make it clear that I have no intention of making this blog a subscription based one.Would like to make money trading markets and not selling tips.

Thanks for your support.Please do visit and leave your valuable comments.

Confused Bull !

2008-08-08T22:40:00.002+05:30

Breakouts 07/08/2008

2008-08-07T21:45:00.004+05:30

Breakouts ANSALINFRA and ADLABSFILM
Breakout list updated. Download link on side bar.
Respect your stops.

New Link .

2008-08-06T22:57:00.005+05:30

I have added a new link on sidebar.Economic Times research channel maintains 26 broad sectoral indices.You can view the returns of these indices in different time frames. It makes sense to concentrate on breakouts from top performing sectors.Monitor on a day today basis.
Excel Tip
If you are using Internet Explorer ,Simply right-click the Web page that contains the data you want to export and click the Export to Microsoft Excel option. Excel will automatically open (if you have it installed on your), and the data will be exported for you. Keep in mind that this will only work for tabular data .

Breakouts 06/08/2008

2008-08-06T22:12:00.004+05:30

Click on chart to enlarge
Breakouts JYOTISTRUC and NIITTECH

Download breakout list from side bar.
Caution Advised .Respect your stops.

Breakouts 05/08/2008

2008-08-05T22:02:00.004+05:30

Breakouts IDBI and DLF

Breakout list and market monitor updated.Link on sidebar

Breakout 04/08/2008

2008-08-04T21:41:00.003+05:30

Breakout :GHCL
Download breakout list and market monitor from sidebar

Breakout 28/07/2008

2008-07-28T21:37:00.004+05:30

Breakout KSOILS
News

Waiting for the Tide.

2008-07-27T14:48:00.004+05:30

In my scheme, the most important thing is not to lose money.Sitting tight on cash is the best and rewarding action in this market . It is prudent to wait till the safest time to enter the market.

Now very few stocks are breaking out with high volume and follow through action is missing .So the only option for a long only, swing trader like me is to remain in cash.

Sooner or later the Market will rally.New leadership stocks will emerge and these stocks will breakout and gap up on massive volumes.

Till then waiting and watching.

Everyday I am updating the market monitor and breakout list.Download link on sidebar.

Time to Ride the Bull ?

2008-07-23T21:00:00.002+05:30

More On Momentum.

2008-07-20T15:54:00.006+05:30

While surfing, I stumbled upon this post made by "moodaeng" at tradingblox.com forum.The post is 5 year old . Here is it.

PostPosted: Thu May 01, 2003 2:29 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Relative Strength or Momentum as Portfolio Selection.

It is a market lore that you should buy "high relative strength" stocks (stocks that have performed best recently).
How has this strategy worked in practice? Take a look at :

http://www.fordinv.com/html/documents/SS0891.pdf

In this article, using data from 12/71 until 09/90, they found that :
- 1 month relative strength is bad : you should sell the stocks that have the highest one month return and buy the stocks that have the lowest one month return.
- 3 months relative strength is bad, also.
- 12 months relative strength is good : you should buy the stocks that have the highest one year return and sell the stocks that have the lowest one year return.

They come up with a formula that optimizes stock selection : you should buy stocks with the highest PRM (price momentum) where PRM is :

PRM = PGY – PGQ – 3 * PGN

With : PGY = 12 month price gain, PGQ = 3 months price gain, PGN = 1 month price gain.

When I first read this article I was suspicious because I suspected curve fitting. But, then, I read this :

http://www.fordinv.com/html/documents/Ss0400_001.pdf

In this article, you see that their momentum model (PMO) has worked remarkably well after their stock selection formula was released
(in 1991)

And I also read this :

http://www.newfinance.com/research/common/commonal.html

(Unfortunately this link is not working. )
In this article, the author finds that a bad one month return and a good twelve month return are very good predictors of future over performance.

Conclusion : there seems to be good historical evidence that :

- short term past underperformance (one month to 3 months) is good for stocks.
- Medium term overperformance (12 months) is good for stocks.

I wanted to know what you thought about these "findings". Have you seen other articles about it ? Is your personal research going the same way? Thanks for sharing your thoughts.
_________________

Signal !

2008-07-20T15:02:00.002+05:30

Wisdom.

2008-07-20T13:08:00.002+05:30

"Just remember, without discipline, a clear strategy, and a concise plan, the speculator will fall into all the emotional pitfalls of the market and jump from one stock to another, hold a losing position too long, cut out of a winner too soon and for no reason other than fear of losing the profit. Greed, Fear, Impatience, Ignorance, and Hope will all fight for mental dominance over the speculator. Then, after a few failures and catastrophes the speculator may become demoralized, depressed, despondent, and abandon the market and the chance to make a fortune from what the market has to offer."
Jesse Livermore, How to Trade in Stocks

Self Evaluation .

2008-07-19T19:13:00.003+05:30

How do you measure up ? This will probably help you to know where you stand.Here is a self evaluation to identify your trading strength and weaknesses from tradingadviseblog.com

Reading: Ideaspace

2008-07-17T20:00:00.002+05:30

Bulls ,Bears and Fund Managers

Many animals like bison, wilder beasts, elephants etc. exhibit a herd mentality. In the jungles where survival is a daily struggle many animals have discovered that there is security in numbers. Many of these animals would not survive even for a day if they were not part of a herd. Herds offer a good defense against attacks of predators; they also offer protection to the old, feeble and the infant. The instinct to herd is imprinted in their jeans that even domesticated animals exhibit this behaviour even when there is no threat to their survival.

Another place where animal instincts are at play is the stock market where the major players are so appropriately named as bulls and bears. The reason we get to see such animal instincts at the stock market could be because of the fact that it is just like a jungle. Life there is a constant struggle for survival and the forces operating there are so brute, unforgiving and unpredictable that the participants have to depend a lot on their animal instincts. And in such set ups survival depends a lot on herd mentality.

Read More

Bullish Market !

2008-07-16T20:25:00.002+05:30

Cartoon courtesy :Midday
Cartoon by Satish Acharya Link to his blog.

Patience Pays !

2008-07-14T20:48:00.002+05:30

"In the long run,patience counts more than any other single element except knowledge.The two really go hand in hand." Jesse Livermore

Monsoon Market !

2008-07-13T11:53:00.001+05:30

Light at the End ?

2008-07-09T20:06:00.003+05:30

Today the market rebounded nicely.A combination of factors helped this rebound.Government will survive without the left support and the nuke deal will be signed. There is no threat of immediate elections.Crude prices are softening and FII selling has slowed down.

I hope conditions are ripe for a counter trend rally.At last could see some light at the end of the tunnel.

You can download market monitor and Breakout list.Link on side bar.

Stock Analyst !

2008-07-05T16:04:00.002+05:30

Cartoon courtesy :Midday
Cartoon by Satish Acharya Link to his blog.

Hammered !

2008-07-03T22:10:00.003+05:30

You can download the market monitor and breakout list in excel format
Download link on the side bar.Stay out. Cash is the preferred option.

Reading: India Lets Success Happen

2008-07-01T21:51:00.005+05:30

China and India have followed vastly different paths to economic success. In China, a dictatorship has implemented its strategic vision with an iron fist. In India, under democracy, every party advocates different policies, so a national vision would be impossible even if people wanted one. Yet this non-strategy has produced 9% annual GDP growth for five years.

India's 1991 economic reforms abolished industrial licensing and many other controls, and demoted central planning to indicative planning. Deregulation plus investment in new infrastructure -- which provided the connectivity crucial for globalization -- created a million possible paths in place of the planned one. And entrepreneurs did the rest.

Read More

Yes, I have faith in Indian Democracy and I have faith in Indian Corporates. Best is yet to come.

Sky is Falling !

2008-07-01T20:43:00.001+05:30

Perfection !

2008-06-29T16:04:00.004+05:30

Are you a perfectionist ?

If yes , Trading is not for you.

Perfectionism is one of the cardinal sins of trading and can be fatal.A Perfectionist cant accept the probabilistic nature of market and he will be always searching for the Holy Grail of trading which does not exist.He will flirt from system to system,Indicator to indicator in search of perfection.Eventually this will demoralize the trader and will take away the fun of being in the market.As traders we must strive for the excellence in trading and not for perfection.

Game Plan

2008-06-28T18:50:00.003+05:30

Swing trading is buying and staying with a stock during an intermediate advance. Stocks do not go up in a straight line.They spurt and then consolidate for a while.SMART attempts to capture the advance and free up the capital during consolidations.It assumes that holding the stock during the basing is a waste of time and capital.

A consolidation or basing is a period where neither the buyers nor the sellers have upper hand.Then either the bulls or the bears win.We are looking for a significant high volume upside move where the buyers dominate.This high volume breakout indicates that the stock wants to go higher.

During trending markets,we will find many such breakouts every day.The challenge is to find the breakout with the most upside potential.Choice is a big problem in market.Selecting the ones with as many variables as possible in our favour is the only solution.

Consider anything you think that can turn the odds in your favour.Fundamentals, story, valuations,industry, sector,patterns, indicators, fib levels , pivots,trend lines,supports and resistance.....etc... etc.. and find out what works for you.

But still Breakouts are not foolproof.Many breakouts will fail and the stock will fall back to the base again.If it fails take your loss and move on to the next breakout.

I would like to remind you once again that trading is a pure probability game.Ignore the outcome of individual trades and ensure that over time your gains exceed your losses.

Some traders will take years to understand this and many of them will never.

Signal !

2008-06-25T20:23:00.003+05:30

Market Statistics and Breakout list updated.Download Link on sidebar

Secrets to Success

2008-06-25T00:00:00.000+05:30

Where is the Bottom ?

2008-06-24T22:39:00.003+05:30

Drowning !

2008-06-23T21:55:00.005+05:30

Cartoon courtesy :Midday
Cartoon by Satish Acharya Link to his blog.

Questions !

2008-06-21T17:54:00.005+05:30

Recently I exchanged a series of mails with a reader.Here is the condensed form.

Why Trading ?

Investing is buying a stock based on solid fundamentals and holding it for a long term. Owning a piece of a great company pays well in the long run.But unfortunately I do not have the knowledge to value business.Hence trading.

Which Time frame?

Position trading is not my cup of tea,Macro Economic and political factors can change a lot in larger time frames.I am very poor in analyzing these things. Then what about day trading ? Oh ! no. I am working and can't watch the market during trading hours.So I settled for swing trading. My average holding is around 10 trading days.Basically I trade breakouts.

Failure rate is very high in breakouts. is'nt it ?

Yes.Trading breakouts on random shares is the easiest way to lose your shirt.Stock selection is the key in trading breakouts.

What one need for profitable trading ?

1)A reliable method to gauge the health of the overall market.This will help us to stay on the right side of the market most of the time.

2) A trading system with an edge.Trading system will have an edge if it is well aligned with the central tendencies of the market and exploits some robust anomalies of the market .Trade this method with prudent position sizing and money management techniques.

How to become consistently profitable,?

First thing one need to understand is that trading is purely a probability game. It is all about probabilities, never certainties.Key to consistent profitably is to trade a method with an edge long enough,surrendering yourself to the law of probability ,ignoring the outcome of individual trades.

Why ignore the analysts and experts ?

Conventional wisdom will not work in markets.Market has its own logic.Mr.Market is not at all bothered about my wish or the experts opinion .it will move its own way.It makes sense to ignore the expert opinions and listen to the market for tips.

How to get tips from Mr.Market?

Significant moves are Mr. Market's subtle way of giving tips.Focus on significant price and volume moves in different time frames and continuously study these moves.All my methods focus on significant moves like 4%+ move a day,25%+ move in a month ,100%+ move in a year,50%+ down move in a quarter etc. Don't forget to monitor significant sector moves and industry moves.

What indicators to use ?

I trade pure price and volume action.I am not against using indicators and patterns,but know very little about this.Why should I complicate when simpler and easier things work equally well ?

Is SMART(Significant Move Analysis Related Trades) a system ?

No. SMART is a concept.I trade different methods based on this concept exploiting anomalies like price momentum,earnings momentum,mean reversion etc. At present ,in this blog,I concentrate on momentum based methods.Will introduce other methods later.

More Later.

Belied Hope !

2008-06-20T19:14:00.004+05:30

Market monitor and breakout list updated.Download link on sidebar.
Stay Out

Roller Coaster !

2008-06-19T20:46:00.004+05:30

Market Statistics and Breakout list updated.Download link on the side bar.
Market condition not favorable. Stay out

Signal !

2008-06-17T22:38:00.002+05:30

Breakout 17/06/2008

2008-06-17T21:38:00.003+05:30

Breakout 17/06/2008 DIVISLAB
You can download the breakout list from the sidebar.
Better to stay out during this choppy market environment.FII net selling at 530 crores

Breakouts 16/06/2008

2008-06-16T22:36:00.003+05:30

Breakouts 16/06/2008. BAGFILMS and SASKEN
Breakout list and market statistics updated.Download link on side bar.
Market condition not favourable. Stay out.

Signal: Sit Tight on Cash

2008-06-14T23:07:00.001+05:30

World Market Cap by Country

2008-06-12T21:52:00.003+05:30

Click on the image to enlarge

State of the Market

2008-06-12T21:40:00.003+05:30

Download Market Monitor and Breakout List from side bar

Pharma Stocks Move Up !

2008-06-11T22:39:00.001+05:30

Running Away ?

2008-06-10T21:50:00.004+05:30

FIIs no longer want to park their funds in India,it seems.They are selling big time.Net sales so far in june is around 4300 Crores. For 2008 they sold for 20000 crores.Too bad.

June 2008 Purchase 22094.40 Sales 26420.40 Net Sales 4326.00

Year 2008 Purchase 392037.90 Sales 411733.30 Net Sales 19695.40

Market Woes

2008-06-09T21:47:00.002+05:30

Advantage : Bears

2008-06-08T11:29:00.001+05:30

Scared !

2008-06-07T18:09:00.005+05:30

Crude oil for July delivery rose $10.75, or 8.4 percent, to settle at $138.54 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Fears that the US economy is in recession seem to be getting confirmed with Unemployment rate rising to a 20-year-high to 5.5% in May from 5.0% in April.

The Dow Jones industrial average tumbled 394.64 points, or 3.13 percent, to end at 12,209.81, its biggest drop since February 2007.

Inflation shows no signs of easing. India's inflation rate rose to 8.24% .The recent oil price hike would increase inflation rate further in near term.

The macro economic environment of our country is worsening day by day.

FIIs are selling out.Net FII selling on Friday at Rs 1419 Crores.Net selling at 8500 Crores in last 10 trading days.

There are political differences at the Centre over raising of domestic retail fuel prices.

Enough, Enough , Don't scare me.

Bull Trap ?

2008-06-05T19:21:00.003+05:30

Black Swan Chart Formation!

2008-06-03T22:00:00.002+05:30

Click on the chart to enlarge
This is a very dangerous formation, as detailed in Nassim Talebs book" The Black Swan" . Traders should be very careful anytime this chart appears . . . . . . . . . . . . Yes, its a joke.
Here is the Original post from blackchip at Elite Trader

Wait on the Sidelines

2008-06-03T21:16:00.002+05:30

Breakouts 02/06/2008

2008-06-02T20:27:00.002+05:30

Breakout HEROHONDA

Breakouts 30/05/2008

2008-05-30T19:29:00.003+05:30

Breakouts: DRREDDY and INFOSYSTCH
Download breakout list from side bar
FII net sellers at Rs 1083.90 Crores

Reading: Fast Moving Stocks

2008-05-29T20:33:00.004+05:30

Fast Moving Stocks : Ivanhoff

I have done a comprehensive study of stocks that managed to rise 40%+ in a month or less. I found out that the majority of them belong to one of the following seven groups

Read More

Breakout 29/05/2008

2008-05-29T19:43:00.004+05:30

LUPIN and IFCI

Stay out. Further deterioration in market condition
Net FII selling at Rs 733.90 Crores

Breakouts 28/05/2008

2008-05-28T20:18:00.003+05:30

Breakouts TATASTEEL and GESHIP
Market condition not favourable. Stay out
FII net selling Rs 354.20 Crores.

Signal !

2008-05-27T21:05:00.000+05:30

Breakout 27/05/2008

2008-05-27T20:15:00.003+05:30

Breakout ABAN
Broad market worsened.Stay out
FII net sellers at Rs 1115 Crores.

Breakout 26/05/2008

2008-05-26T19:47:00.004+05:30

Breakout: EICHERMOT

Further Deterioration in broad market conditions.Stay out.
FII net selling at Rs 500.50 Crores.

Extraordinary Effort

2008-05-25T18:23:00.002+05:30

Here is an excellent professional quality software that can solve all your data problems. Pankaj(pkjha30) of Traderji forum has released the new version of his software "EODDlc"

Features include download and conversion of data to any format like Amibroker,Meta stock,Fcharts and Fibotrader.This can be used to extract data from NSE,BSE,MCX and NCDEX.

EODDlc can download and format EOD,FNO,VIX,Delivery data and PR.Zip from NSE.It will take care of the name and symbol changes also. The software is compiled as a set up file and very ease to install.

Icing on the cake is that it is absolutely free.More details are here

I really appreciate and congratulate Pankaj for this extra ordinary effort.

Special Claps go.......

Oracle of Oil

2008-05-23T20:48:00.003+05:30

Arjun N Murti is the most talked about analyst on the globe today. The Goldman Sachs analyst tracks oil. Murthi’s recent claim to fame is that he has predicted oil will cross $200 per barrel very “soon”. The oil prices have already shot up to $135 a barrel.

In 2005, the New Jersey-born Indian had predicted that oil would cross $100 a barrel, a prediction which many of his detractors scoffed at then. The crude was then trading at a modest $40 a barrel. Murthi, who added a new term, “super spike”, to the commodity analysis lexicon way back in 2005, is back in news again with his $200 prediction.

More

Breakouts 23/05/2008

2008-05-23T19:41:00.003+05:30

Breakouts :TATAELXSI and BLUEBIRD
Broad market continues to deteriorate and the outlook is not encouraging.Stay out.
FIIs Net sellers at Rs 550.70 Crores.See the institutional data on the side bar

Signal !

2008-05-22T20:04:00.002+05:30

Breakouts 22/05/2008

2008-05-22T19:49:00.002+05:30

Breakout :GUJSIDHCEM
Download breakout list from side bar
Caution,FII net selling 611.40 crores today

Breakouts 21/05/2008

2008-05-21T21:33:00.006+05:30

Breakouts : PRAJIND and HINDOILEXP
Download breakout list from sidebar
Net Institutional sales 433 Crores as on 20/05/2008
FII net selling 319.80 crores today.Respect your stops.

Inter Spem et Metum

2008-05-20T21:57:00.002+05:30

Jesse Livermore,the famous old trader,who made and lost millions in the stock market once said "There are only two emotions in the market-hope and fear.The problem is,you hope when you should fear,and you fear when you should hope"

What did Livermore mean by "hoping"when you should fear and vice versa?

When a stock falls far below your cost and you are losing money,you hope it will go back up.But you really should be fearing that you might lose more money.And you should react by selling the stock and cutting the loss.

When a stock goes up in price and you are making money,you fear you might lose your profit.So you sell too soon.But the fact that the stock is going up is actually a sign of strength and an indication that you may be right.

Copied from the book 24 Essential Lessons for Investment Success
By William J O'Neil

Breakouts 20/05/2008

2008-05-20T19:13:00.003+05:30

Breakouts :ADLABSFILM and SKUMARSYNF
Download breakout list from side bar.

Green Stocks

2008-05-20T14:49:00.005+05:30

Click on the chart to enlarge
Who told day trading is an extreme sports ?
Simple. Buy at open, sell at close and collect the cheque.
Need more ? Ok. PHILIPCARB,ORIENTHOT,KEC,IMPAL,PUNJABCHEM,PRATIBHA.
Now it is your turn . Show me the sure shorts.

Reading :Why everyone should write a blog

2008-05-18T22:23:00.004+05:30

Why everyone should write a blog : By Aaron Schiff

Because it makes you think.

When you write a blog, you need material for posts. You get that by reading other blogs, the news, or whatever, thinking about it, adding a bit of value, and writing about it. Writing a blog gives you a reason and motivation to think about things.

Writing a blog also forces you to think things through more carefully. What you write could be read by anyone, so you need to try not to say something excessively stupid. To sharpen this incentive, you should not blog anonymously.